Live trade tickets — 2026-05-11 (mid-session)
Generated: 2026-05-11 ~15:10 UTC Equity: \(95,891 paper · **Drawdown from peak:** -3.96% (\)99,852 → $95,891) Recovery target: $100,000 (+4.3% from here) Realistic horizon: 1-3 trading weeks if signals trigger Sizing discipline: Kelly-quarter on discretionary (~1-2% risk per setup)
Read this first
The gold complex is in a violent 5-day rally:
| Symbol | 5d return |
|---|---|
| GLD | +4.65% |
| GDX | +13.93% |
| GDXJ | +14.43% |
| WPM | +15.88% |
| NEM | +11.53% |
| AEM | +10.22% |
| SLV | +17.59% |
| SIL | +17.16% |
Our system entered this rally with only 1 share of GLD long because the 21 new gold strategies just deployed yesterday afternoon. Today's intraday loop has already added 1 GLD long + 8 SLV short via gold_silver_ratio_intraday. The 19:30 UTC (3:30 PM ET) macro rebalance is the catch-up event — gold_lbma_fix_anomaly is sitting at 5.6x its trigger threshold (biggest signal of the quarter) and will deploy at max weight 0.20.
Recommended decision-tree:
- Default: WAIT until 19:30 UTC. Don't trade against your own system. The rebalance will deploy ~50-65% of equity into long gold/miner exposure. Discretionary additions should ADD to system positioning, not duplicate.
- One cheap convex play TODAY (the GLD call spread below) — captures upside into Wed CPI without fighting the algos.
- After 19:30: evaluate post-rebalance positioning, then deploy the pullback tickets on a 1-3 day timeframe.
Ticket 1 — Convex GLD CALL play (DO TODAY)
Setup: Cheap upside convexity into Wed CPI + Fed Waller speech tonight + LBMA anomaly resolution.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Symbol | GLD |
| Structure | Buy 5x GLD Jun 20 2026 $445 call |
| Estimated premium | ~$2.50 per contract @ mid |
| Total cost | ~$1,250 (1.3% of equity) |
| Breakeven at exp | $447.50 (+3.1% from $434) |
| 1R (5x ret if GLD $452.50 by exp) | $6,250 |
| Max risk | $1,250 (premium) |
| Max reward | uncapped — ~$8k+ if GLD breaks $460 |
| Conviction | HIGH — system bias + macro catalysts stacked |
| Order type | Limit at mid; do NOT chase if filled gets ugly |
Why this: 5 weeks of duration, ~1.4% OTM. If LBMA anomaly + TSMOM rally extends → 5-10x. If gold consolidates → premium decays slowly. Max loss is bounded.
Ticket 2 — Resting LIMIT LONG GLD on intraday pullback (TODAY/TOMORROW)
Setup: Today's intraday low was $432.94. Wait for a pullback to support.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Symbol | GLD |
| Side | LONG |
| Order type | Limit |
| Entry | $432.80 (today's low minus a few cents) |
| Size | 30 shares |
| Notional | ~$12,984 (13.5% equity) |
| Stop | $429.50 (-0.76%) |
| Risk | $99 (0.10% equity) |
| Target 1 | $436 (~1.0R, 0.7%) |
| Target 2 | $440 (~2.2R, 1.7%) |
| Target 3 | $445 (~3.7R, 2.8%) |
| Conviction | MEDIUM-HIGH |
Why this: Limit order doesn't chase. If filled, you ride the system rebalance. If not filled by Wed CPI, cancel.
Ticket 3 — Close the SHORT SLV (CLEAN EXIT)
Setup: The gold/silver ratio mean-reversion that put us short SLV has played out. Silver caught up.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Symbol | SLV |
| Current position | SHORT 8 @ avg $77.53 |
| Current price | $77.54 (basically flat) |
| Action | Cover the short (BUY 8 SLV at market or limit $77.65) |
| Realized P&L | ~$0 |
| Conviction | HIGH — get out cleanly |
Why this: Silver is +17.59% over 5d. Even though the entry was the right side of the GSR trade, silver isn't mean-reverting. Don't fight strong continuation. The system's intraday strategy may do this automatically, but you can pre-empt.
Ticket 4 — LONG WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals royalty) on pullback
Setup: Royalty companies have lower opex than miners. WPM has run +15.88% over 5d. Get it on a pullback.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Symbol | WPM |
| Side | LONG |
| Order type | Limit |
| Entry | $140.00 |
| Size | 30 shares |
| Notional | $4,200 (4.4% equity) |
| Stop | $135.00 (-3.6%) |
| Risk | $150 (0.16% equity) |
| Target 1 | $147 (1.4R) |
| Target 2 | $155 (3.0R) |
| Conviction | MEDIUM |
Why this: Royalty companies amplify gold beta with capital-light operating model. WPM gets repriced if gold > $5,000.
Ticket 5 — LONG NEM (Newmont, senior miner) on pullback
Setup: AISC margin expansion is the alpha here. Newmont AISC ~$1,495, gold \(4,660 spot → margin/oz ~\)3,165 vs historical ~$800 = 4x normal.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Symbol | NEM |
| Side | LONG |
| Order type | Limit |
| Entry | $117.00 |
| Size | 50 shares |
| Notional | $5,850 (6.1% equity) |
| Stop | $112.00 (-4.3%) |
| Risk | $250 (0.26% equity) |
| Target 1 | $128 (4.4R) |
| Target 2 | $135 (7.2R) |
| Conviction | MEDIUM-HIGH |
Why this: gold_miner_aisc_margin will likely fire LONG GDX at 19:30. NEM is the highest-weight constituent of GDX and the cleanest single-name expression of the AISC margin trade.
Ticket 6 — LONG GDXJ (juniors) tactical pullback
Setup: Juniors have higher beta to gold-price continuation in mid-cycle bulls.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Symbol | GDXJ |
| Side | LONG |
| Order type | Limit |
| Entry | $126.00 |
| Size | 60 shares |
| Notional | $7,560 (7.9% equity) |
| Stop | $121.00 (-4.0%) |
| Risk | $300 (0.31% equity) |
| Target 1 | $135 (3.0R) |
| Target 2 | $145 (6.3R) |
| Conviction | MEDIUM |
Ticket 7 — HOLD / HEDGED: IBIT short (do not touch unless squeeze)
Setup: BTC consolidating. Position is hedged correctly per the gold-bitcoin-regime thesis.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Symbol | IBIT |
| Current position | SHORT 326 @ avg $45.37 |
| Current price | $46.02 (-1.43% against us) |
| Current unrealized | -$137 |
| Action | HOLD. Do not add. Do not cover. |
| Cover trigger | IBIT > $48.50 (cost basis +7%) OR BTC > $84,200 with VIX > 21 |
| Conviction (hold) | MEDIUM |
Why this: Don't whipsaw out of a regime trade on small intraday noise. BTC underperforming gold is the structural 2026 theme.
Total tactical deployment if all fill
| Ticket | Notional | Equity % | Risk $ | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (calls) | $1,250 | 1.3% | $1,250 max | $1,250 |
| 2 (GLD long) | $12,984 | 13.5% | $99 | $1,349 |
| 4 (WPM long) | $4,200 | 4.4% | $150 | $1,499 |
| 5 (NEM long) | $5,850 | 6.1% | $250 | $1,749 |
| 6 (GDXJ long) | $7,560 | 7.9% | $300 | $2,049 |
| TOTAL TACTICAL | $31,844 | 33.2% | $2,049 (2.1% equity) | — |
Plus existing system positions + tonight's rebalance deployment ≈ ~70-80% equity working long gold complex by tomorrow open.
What NOT to do
- Don't market-order anything at current intraday highs. Use LIMITS on pullbacks.
- Don't add to the IBIT short until/unless BTC breaks down through $80K with conviction.
- Don't fight the trend by shorting GLD or miners "because it's overbought." Strong trends extend.
- Don't 10x leverage anything. Even if there's a $96K → $1M dream, drawdown is what kills. Kelly-quarter sizing only.
- Don't override the 19:30 macro rebalance — let the system deploy its high-conviction signals.
$96K → $1M honest math (no fantasy)
Best ever quant fund (Medallion): ~71% APR over 30 years. That's the ceiling humans have ever achieved.
For your account:
| CAGR | MaxDD | $96K → $1M |
|---|---|---|
| 25% (top decile retail) | 12% | ~10 years |
| 35% (top 1% systematic) | 15% | ~7.5 years |
| 50% (system target, achievable in current regime) | 15-20% | ~5 years |
| 80% (extreme outlier) | 30%+ | ~4 years |
The week target ($95K → $100K): +4.3% in 5 trading days = ~250% annualized pace. Not impossible if LBMA + TSMOM fire and you size the convex calls. But it CAN'T be forced. The biggest mistake is revenge-trading the drawdown.
This document is a discretionary recommendation, not an order. Execute via the terminal at qgtmai.com — every ticket above can be input into the trade panel with limit prices.