QGTM GOLD/SILVER SYSTEM -- INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
Historical generated brief. It is timestamped and not the live operational source of truth. Use
/api/v1/strategies,/api/v1/session/readiness, and the deployment/runbook docs for current production state.
Generated: 2026-04-12 | Status: OPERATIONAL (Paper Mode) | IVRA Verified
SYSTEM HEALTH
| Component | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Platform | API, Terminal, CI, WebSocket all live | qgtmai.com + api.qgtmai.com |
| Tests | 3,077 passing | 90.71% coverage, lint clean |
| Gates | 11/15 GREEN | Open: 4 (all require live infra or API keys) |
| Kill-switch | ARMED (untested) | 5-tier with 2-person reset |
| Regime | TRANSITION (default) | HMM+BOCPD ensemble not fed live data yet |
| Gaps | 9 open (17/26 resolved) | 4 SEV1, 4 SEV2, 1 SEV3 -- all infrastructure |
EDGE ARCHITECTURE (38 strategies across 9 categories)
| Category | Count | Status | Expected Sharpe | Key Dependencies |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro Regime | 5 | 5 active | 0.3--0.8 | FRED, DXY, TIP |
| Curve & Carry | 5 | 2 active, 3 BLOCKED | 0.4--0.9 | Futures data (GC/SI/MGC) |
| Relative Value | 6 | 6 active | 0.5--1.0 | ETF prices only |
| Positioning & Flow | 6 | 5 active, 1 BLOCKED | 0.3--0.7 | CFTC COT, COMEX/SGE data |
| Volatility | 5 | 3 active, 2 shadow | 0.2--0.6 | Options chain data |
| Event & Seasonal | 3 | 3 active | 0.2--0.5 | Intraday data |
| ML / Ensemble | 3 | 3 shadow | 0.4--0.8 | Training data, PBO gate |
| Systematic | 4 | 4 active | 0.5--1.2 | Price history |
| Structural | 1 | 1 active | 0.3--0.7 | Multi-source |
| TOTAL | 38 | 29 active, 5 shadow, 4 blocked |
Blocked strategies: 4 curve/carry + positioning (no futures/CFTC feed).
CAPITAL & INCOME PROJECTION
Formula: Monthly = Capital x DSR x Vol_Target x (1/sqrt(12)) - Costs
95% CI: +/- 1.96 x Capital x Vol_Target x (1/sqrt(12)) / sqrt(12)
Assumptions: DSR = 1.50, Vol Target = 15%, Monthly Costs = $500
| Capital | Monthly Income (est.) | 95% CI | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|
| $100,000 | $5,995/mo | $3,545 -- $8,445 | $71,942 |
| $250,000 | $15,738/mo | $9,613 -- $21,863 | $188,856 |
| $500,000 | $31,976/mo | $19,726 -- $44,226 | $383,711 |
| $1,000,000 | $64,452/mo | $39,952 -- $88,952 | $773,423 |
| $3,000,000 | $194,356/mo | $120,856 -- $267,856 | $2,332,269 |
| $6,000,000 | $389,211/mo | $242,211 -- $536,211 | $4,670,537 |
\(100K/mo target requires ~\)3--6M at sustained edge.
Honest note: DSR of 1.5 is top-decile. Median systematic PM fund achieves 0.8--1.2. Until backtests are re-run post-bug-fix, all performance claims are theoretical. The 3 critical bugs fixed (lookahead, purged CV, OOS fabrication) mean prior numbers are invalidated.
WHAT WORKS RIGHT NOW
- Paper trading via Alpaca (GLD, SLV, GDX, IAU, SGOL, SIL, PPLT, UGL, AGQ, +35 more)
- Live
/api/v1/strategiesreturned 31 live-known strategies on 2026-04-16, with 26 active and 5 inactive/quarantined at check time - Signal aggregation: inverse-vol x skill x capacity x meta-label weighting
- Regime-conditional allocation (risk-on / risk-off / crisis / inflation / transition)
- Kill-switch (5-tier), reconciliation (60s), watchdog (120s timeout), Merkle audit log
- Self-learning loop: decay detection -> retrain -> shadow -> promote pipeline wired
- 6 execution algos (VWAP, TWAP, IS, Iceberg, Sniper, POV) with TCA
- 9-factor Barra-style risk model + EVT tail risk + 10 stress scenarios
- 47 REST routes + WebSocket terminal + Prometheus /metrics endpoint
WHAT'S BLOCKED (owner action items)
| # | Action | Unlocks | Effort |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Set Alpaca API key in env | Backtests, PBO/DSR validation, live paper signals | 2 min |
| 2 | Run scripts/run_backtest.py |
Quarantine strategies failing PBO < 0.5 | 30 min |
| 3 | mkdocs gh-deploy |
Published docs site (87 pages, builds clean) | 1 min |
| 4 | Deploy Grafana + connect OTel | Latency SLO measurement (p99 < 50ms gate) | 2 hr |
| 5 | Connect IBKR paper account | Second broker redundancy, FIX protocol | 1 hr |
| 6 | Fire-drill kill-switch in staging | Validates 5-tier emergency shutdown | 30 min |
| 7 | Wire CFTC COT + COMEX feeds | Unblocks 4 positioning/flow strategies | 2 hr |
NEAREST RISKS
| # | Risk | Severity | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No live backtest results -- all performance is theoretical | SEV1 | Run backtests with corrected engine (item #1-2 above) |
| 2 | Single broker (Alpaca) -- no redundancy if outage | SEV1 | Connect IBKR paper (item #5) |
| 3 | Single droplet -- no HA failover | SEV2 | K8s manifests ready, need k3s cluster |
| 4 | Futures/FX data not connected -- 4 strategies blind | SEV2 | Wire data feeds (item #7) |
| 5 | Kill-switch never fire-drilled | SEV1 | Stage drill with simulated positions (item #6) |
| 6 | Audit log Merkle chain not independently verified in prod | SEV2 | Run scripts/verify_audit_chain.py on live data |
COMPETITIVE POSITION
Built: 38 strategies, 9-factor PM risk model, self-learning pipeline, Merkle audit log, compliance framework, 18 SR 11-7 inventoried models, 6 execution algos, EVT tail risk, 10 stress scenarios, 3,077 tests at 90.71% coverage.
Comparable to: Mid-tier systematic precious metals fund infrastructure. Code quality and test coverage exceed many production hedge fund codebases.
Gap to production: Live track record (no substitute), futures execution (ETF-only today), institutional broker breadth (Alpaca only), deployed observability (OTel wired but Grafana not live), HA deployment (single node).
NEXT 30 DAYS (priority order)
| Week | Actions | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | Set API key, run backtests, quarantine PBO failures | Validated strategy suite with honest DSR |
| Week 2 | Publish docs, deploy Grafana, connect IBKR paper | Full observability + broker redundancy |
| Week 3 | First live paper trading with full validated suite | Real signals hitting real (paper) market |
| Week 4 | Review 30-day paper results, compute live DSR | First honest performance number |
30-day success metric: Live paper DSR > 0.8 across the validated strategy subset.