Phase 6 — Capital Ladder
Assumption: Precious-metals book via liquid ETFs (GLD, SLV, IAU, GDX) on Alpaca paper today. Futures path not production-verified.
Ladder
| Stage | Capital | Gross cap (2x) | Constraints | Gate to next |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 — Research | $0 live | — | Backtests + shadow | GAP-002 closed for active sleeves |
| 1 — Paper proof | \(100k–\)500k paper | ≤2x | Current state | 60d paper Sharpe > 0.5 book; max DD < 10% |
| 2 — Seed live | $1M | 1.5x | qgtm_live_trading_enabled=true, live URL |
90d live; TCA < 15 bps median |
| 3 — Scale | $5M | 2.0x | Per-name 15% | Realization > 0.7; no SEV1 incidents |
| 4 — Institutional | $25M | 2.0x + futures | GC/SI execution, compliance sign-off | Capacity model below |
| 5 — Size | $100M+ | Program-specific | Dedicated execution, multiple brokers | ADV participation < 5% |
Audit answer for $5M tomorrow: NO — see GO_NO_GO_MEMO.md.
Capacity math (ETF proxy)
| Symbol | Typical ADV ($) | 5% ADV cap | At 2x on $5M book |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | ~$2B+ | ~$100M | Comfortable |
| SLV | ~$500M+ | ~$25M | Comfortable |
| GDX | ~$800M | ~$40M | Watch crowding |
$25M in GLD-heavy book: still feasible in ETFs with VWAP slicing; TCA must prove < 20 bps.
$100M+: ETF impact material — require COMEX micro (MGC) / (SIL) or swap.
Utilization (2026-05)
INTRADAY_CAPITAL_FRACTION raised to 0.50 to use PDT buying power — increases intraday risk; overnight unchanged.
Operators
| Role | Responsibility |
|---|---|
| user | Capital gate, live flag, kill reset approver |
| Naz | Mobile dashboard, alert ack, paper monitoring |