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Phase 6 — Capital Ladder

Assumption: Precious-metals book via liquid ETFs (GLD, SLV, IAU, GDX) on Alpaca paper today. Futures path not production-verified.


Ladder

Stage Capital Gross cap (2x) Constraints Gate to next
0 — Research $0 live Backtests + shadow GAP-002 closed for active sleeves
1 — Paper proof \(100k–\)500k paper ≤2x Current state 60d paper Sharpe > 0.5 book; max DD < 10%
2 — Seed live $1M 1.5x qgtm_live_trading_enabled=true, live URL 90d live; TCA < 15 bps median
3 — Scale $5M 2.0x Per-name 15% Realization > 0.7; no SEV1 incidents
4 — Institutional $25M 2.0x + futures GC/SI execution, compliance sign-off Capacity model below
5 — Size $100M+ Program-specific Dedicated execution, multiple brokers ADV participation < 5%

Audit answer for $5M tomorrow: NO — see GO_NO_GO_MEMO.md.


Capacity math (ETF proxy)

Symbol Typical ADV ($) 5% ADV cap At 2x on $5M book
GLD ~$2B+ ~$100M Comfortable
SLV ~$500M+ ~$25M Comfortable
GDX ~$800M ~$40M Watch crowding

$25M in GLD-heavy book: still feasible in ETFs with VWAP slicing; TCA must prove < 20 bps.

$100M+: ETF impact material — require COMEX micro (MGC) / (SIL) or swap.


Utilization (2026-05)

INTRADAY_CAPITAL_FRACTION raised to 0.50 to use PDT buying power — increases intraday risk; overnight unchanged.


Operators

Role Responsibility
user Capital gate, live flag, kill reset approver
Naz Mobile dashboard, alert ack, paper monitoring